RISK
ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC ELECTRIC VEHICLE
BATTERY SWAPPING
STATION (SPBKLU)
Azkal Fata
Herzasha
Institut Teknologi
Bandung
azkal_fata@sbm-itb.ac.id
Abstract
The use of Electric Vehicles
(EVs) in recent years has become an alternative for people to switch to
environmentally friendly technology. Exhaust emissions from Internal Combustion
Engines (ICE) vehicle which play a big role in air pollution are one of the
strong reasons for people to switch. However, one of the main challenges faced
when using EVs widely is the limited range and long battery charging times. The
existence of limited electric vehicle infrastructure is also an obstacle to the
sustainability of the use of EVs for daily activities. Public Electric Vehicle
Battery Swapping Station/Stasiun Penukaran
Baterai Kendaraan Listrik Umum (SPBKLU) are one of the potential solutions to this
problem that allow EV owners to quickly swap out their depleted batteries for
fully charged ones. This research study aims to determine the potential risks
that can arise in the development process of the Public Electric Vehicle
Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU) as a solution to the limited range and
charging time of battery – based electric motor vehicles. The data collection
method was carried out through interviews and surveys to 3 respondents from
divisions/units who are owners of business processes related to the SPBKLU project.
A comprehensive risk assessment through risk management assessment is carried
out on the strategic, financial, operational, project and compliance aspects of
this technology. The risks that have been identified are then evaluated and
prioritized to then be able to make a mitigation plan in reducing the level of
risk to reach the level of corporate risk appetite. The results of the risk assessment
identified 16 (sixteen) risks with different levels of risk as follows, there
is 2 (two) risks at the Extreme level, 3 (three) risks at the Very High level,
9 (nine) risks at the High level, and 2 (two) risks at the Moderate level.
Based on the Risk Appetite level of PT PLN (Persero), only 2 (two) risks that
are at the Moderate level will be accepted. Meanwhile, for the other 14 (fourteen)
risks, a mitigation plan will be carried out to lower the risk level to a
Moderate/ Low level. The mitigation plan that will be carried out is prepared
in the form of an action plan that the implementation process will be monitored
according to the scheduled timeline.
Keywords: company performance; competitive
advantage; brand equity.
Introduction
Increased public awareness of
environmentally friendly energy has prompted a change in public behavior toward fossil-based energy consumption (Al-Marri, Al-Habaibeh, & Watkins, 2018). The transport
sector is one of the biggest contributors to the increase in CO2
emissions that are starting to change to renewable energy. This change is
marked by an increasing number of manufacturers in the field of transportation
starting to produce electric vehicle to meet the public's need for green
energy-based vehicle (Zhang & Da, 2015).
According to benchmark study with
global consultant, the projected total sales volume of two-wheeled battery–based
electric motor vehicle/Kendaraan Bermotor
Listrik Berbasis Baterai Roda 2 (KBL BB R2) in Indonesia is estimated to reach 3% of
the total national motorcycle sales volume (projection is based on sales volume
of ICE based motorcycles in Indonesia) and will increase to 16% in 2030. Using
this assumption then the projected number of KBL BB R2 in Indonesia in 2030 is
estimated to reach 4.6 million (Yeh, 1979).
%20903-918_files/image002.jpg)
Figure 1 Projection of the number of
EV motorcycles until 2030 in Indonesia
(Source: PT PLN (Persero) business
development study with global consultant)
To fulfil the
increase in electric vehicle users it is necessary to add a large amount of electric
vehicle infrastructure (Hardman et al., 2018). Several
things have been done by the government, such as issuing Presidential Regulation
of the Republic of Indonesia No. 55 of 2019 and Regulation of the Minister of Energy
and Mineral Resources No. 13 of 2020 to encourage the acceleration of the KBL BB
program as a transportation vehicle. Based on data from the ministry of
transportation, the directorate general of land transportation, the number of EV
motorcyles users in July 2022 has reached 19,698
users.
%20903-918_files/image004.gif)
Figure 2 Population of Electric
Vehicles in Indonesia, Juli 2022
Source:
The Ministry of Transportation)
However, the increasing number of battery
– based electric motor vehicle users has not been accompanied by an increase in
the number of battery swapping stations/Stasiun Penukaran Baterai Kendaraan Listrik Umum (SPBKLU).
PLN as an enabler was specifically mandated by the government to develop the
electric vehicle ecosystem, specifically entering the upstream sector (supply)
and the downstream sector (demand). So, the provision of adequate electric
vehicle infrastructure will be one of the key factors to the growth of the
electric vehicle ecosystem while increasing public confidence to switch from ICE–based
motor vehicle into battery–based electric motor vehicle.
In accordance with Presidential
Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No. 55 of 2019, PLN was specifically given
the mandate to develop an electric vehicle ecosystem. One of the developments
of the electric vehicle ecosystem by PLN is the development of cooperation with
fleet management and electric motorcyles manufacturer
(Questera, Aziz, & Purwadi, 2022). PLN
continues to build Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU) because
it is what the community needs most in the midst of the proliferation of
electric motorcycle, especially online motorcycle taxi drivers. Based on a
study of PLN’s business development with consultants related to the roadmap for the development of battery–based
motor vehicles, the electric motorcycles can cover a distance of 60 kilometers with full battery (Perujo, Van Grootveld, & Scholz, 2012). Meanwhile,
online motorcycle taxis travel around 120 until 150 kilometers
every day. So, they have to replace the depleted batteries 2–3 times a day. While
the number of existing battery swapping stations is
still inadequate. Insufficient supply of charging infrastructure has become a
serious issue which hinders the development of electric vehicles (Wu, Song, Li, & Xu, 2018).
In the pilot project stage, PLN collaborating
with online transportation operators (fleet management) and electric motorcycle
manufacturers. The business scheme carried out is PLN as a provider of
electricity supply, fleet management as a provider and owner of SPBKLU and a
manufacturer as a provider of electric vehicles used by fleet management. Fleet
management is given a special service tariff for its electricity supply by PLN
and waived the rental fee for the SPBKLU location at the PLN office (Yang, Long, Li, & Rehman, 2016). Based on
the SPBKLU development pilot project report, with the business scheme as
mentioned above, it is still not enough to attract partners to cooperate with
PLN in developing SPBKLU. This is due to the large amount of investment that
must be spent by business entities to do SPBKLU business and the low level of
utilization. And in its implementation, there are still major issues related to
technical matters. So, PLN still have to analyse the risks that will arise in
the future by developing the public electric vehicle battery swapping station
(SPBKLU) for the commercial phase where the business model must be profitable
and sustainable for both PLN and partners.
The research questions
are: 1. What are the risks in providing Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping
Station (SPBKLU)? 2. What is the risk level of risks that has been identified
and its priority regarding the development of Public Electric Vehicle Battery
Swapping Station (SPBKLU)? 3. What are the mitigation plans that can be
implemented regarding the development of Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping
Station (SPBKLU)?
Metode
The research method and
techniques chosen in this study are qualitative method. This method is used to
identify, analyse, evaluate, and mitigate the risks that could occur in the
development of Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU).
Qualitative methods are carried out by interview, group discussion, and desktop
study to determine the best mitigation plan to be applied to the development of
Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU).
%20903-918_files/image006.jpg)
Figure 3 Research
Design
(Source: Author)
Data
Analysis Method
After collecting data, the
next step is to apply the Risk Management Process based on ISO 31000:2018. First,
establish the context by define the risk management context, including the objectives
and the stakeholders who are affected by the risks. Then the next step is doing
Risk Assessment (Wang & Wang, 2020). There are three subprocesses, begin with Risk Identification,
Risk Analysis, and Risk Evaluation that can be seen below:
a. Risk identification is made by analysing the primary
data and secondary data that has been done in data collection process. The result
from Risk Identification about the risk that arise when development of Public Electric
Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU) started then will be validated by
experts from the Corporate Risk Management Unit.
b. Risk analysis is carried out by analysing the risks
to determine their significance and to prioritize them for further action. This
involves assessing the likelihood and impact of each risk, as well as any
potential interactions or dependencies between risks. The level of likelihood
and level of impact for the identified risks are prepared based on the criteria
of the degree of probability and impact on to the General Guidelines for PLN
Integrated Risk Management in the Regulation of the Board of Directors of PT
PLN (Persero) No. 0071.P/DIR/ 2021.
c. Then risk evaluation will be carried out to evaluate
the risks to determine whether they should be accepted, treated, or avoided.
This involves comparing the costs and benefits of different risk treatment
options and selecting the most appropriate one.
d. After carrying out the Risk Assessment, there will
be a Risk Prioritization to choose the the main risks
to be mitigated or to be treated. The Risk Treatment or Mitigation Stage taken
by company by reducing the impact or likelihood of the risk. From interviews
and group discussions with business process owner and related stakeholders,
there will be several alternatives that can be used to reduce the impact of the
risks that occur and the probability of the risks. Then several priority
alternatives are suggested to be implemented in business processes in the
company (Valipour et al., 2015)
Results and Discussion
Analysis
Internal
and External Analysis
External
Environment Analysis: PESTEL Analysis
PESTEL analysis shows 6 external environmental factors that affect the
development of SPBKLU. Each influencing factor is described in detail along
with its category as an opportunity or threat.
Political
a. Presidential Regulation of
the Republic of Indonesia Number 55 of 2019 and Regulation of the Minister of
Energy and Mineral Resources Number 13 of 2020 encourage the acceleration of
the KBL BB program as a transport vehicle and mandate PLN to develop an
electric vehicle ecosystem. (Opportunity)
b. The regulations made by PLN
are strongly influenced by government policies. So that regulatory changes very
often occur when there is a change from government regulation. (Threat)
Economic
a.
Global economic conditions that have begun to
improve after the Covid-19 Pandemic have made people's purchasing power also
increase. Because people's financial condition is also getting better. (Opportunity)
b.
Exchange rate fluctuations that are the reference for
determining investment costs will have an impact on the uncertainty of the cost
of making and developing a SPBKLU business. (Threat)
Sociocultural
a.
Battery swapping systems can be particularly
beneficial for fleet vehicles, such as delivery trucks, buses, and taxis as it can
reduce downtime and increase efficiency. (Opportunity)
b. The growing electric vehicle
market today will create more demand for battery exchange systems to support
the use of battery-based electric motorcycles. (Opportunity)
c. People still have a high level
of doubt about switching from using an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based
motor vehicle into electric motor vehicle. Due to the limited availability of
electric vehicle infrastructure. (Threat)
Technology
a.
Battery swapping technology is more efficient than charging station technology. (Opportunity)
b.
The development of battery technology with more
advanced technologies, such as long-lasting batteries, can make battery
swapping less necessary and reduce the demand for systems. (Threat)
Environment
a.
The use of electric motor vehicles can reduce the
level of air pollution due to exhaust gases. (Opportunity)
b.
The increasing use of battery-based electric vehicles
poses an increased risk of battery waste. Improper handling of battery waste
has the potential to pollute the environment. (Threat)
Legal
a.
The process of developing an internal payment
gateway that has been hampered due to the non-issuance of license from the Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) as a
regulator. Because special permits are needed for non-banking institutions to
carry out financial transactions. (Threat)
b.
There is a dispute between PLN and partners regarding
the established cooperation contract so that it can cause lawsuits. (Threat)
e. Internal Environment
Analysis: VRIO Analysis
Furthermore, business situation analysis is carried out by measuring and
evaluating the internal environmental conditions of PLN and its capabilities to
generate value. VRIO analysis aims to find out how well PLN's resources and
capabilities are used in providing services to consumers.
Table 1 VRIO analysis
|
Resource,
capability, or competency |
Valuable |
Rare |
Inimitable |
Organized |
|
Competitive
Parity |
||||
|
State-owned
enterprises that manage energy resources |
√ |
|
|
|
|
Telecommunications
business processes |
√ |
|
|
|
|
Temporary
Competitive Advantages |
||||
|
Have experts
from various scientific fields, especially related to the use of energy
resources |
√ |
√ |
|
|
|
Development of
electric vehicle charging station |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
|
Development of
electric vehicle battery swapping station |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
|
Unexploited
Competitive Advantages |
||||
|
PLN Mobile App |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
|
Transmission
network infrastructure that is spread to remote areas |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
|
Sustained
Competitive Advantages |
||||
|
Strong brand
image as an Electricity Company that becomes the customer's first choice for
energy solutions |
√ |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
Large assets and
infrastructure |
√ |
√ |
√ |
√ |
|
Strategically
playing a role in national economic growth as the largest electricity
provider |
√ |
√ |
√ |
√ |
Source:
(Author)
Table 1 above contains the key resources, capabilities or competencies possessed by PLN as a business entity evaluated through the VRIO framework. The results of the analysis of all key resources, capabilities or competencies are described as follows.
Competitive
Parity
The resources under the group of competitive parity are because several
other competitors have similar types of resources.
Temporary
Competitive Advantages
With existing resources and competencies, PLN should be able to manage
business processes outside the electricity provider's business more optimally.
Unexploited
Competitive Advantages
One of the steps
taken to increase engagement with customers is to provide the best service to
customers by creating a PLN Mobile application that integrates all PLN
products. In addition, PLN's electricity transmission infrastructure spread to
remote areas should be able to be used to distribute other PLN products, namely
the internet network.
Sustained
Competitive Advantages
As one of the largest state-owned enterprises engaged in energy and has large
assets, large infrastructure and customers spread nationwide, being the main
point that distinguishes PLN from other companies.
Business
Situation Analysis: SWOT Analysis
From the internal and external results above, the Strength, Weakness,
Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) owned by PLN as a business entity that
develops Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU) are as
follows.
Table 2 PLN SWOT Analysis
|
Internal Analysis |
|||
|
Strength |
Weakness |
||
|
Convenience for users |
Battery swapping systems allows users to quickly replace their battery
without having to wait for charging, making it more convenient than
traditional charging methods. |
Limited battery options |
With battery swapping, users are limited to the battery options
provided by the system, which could restrict their ability to choose the best
option for their needs. |
|
Cost effective solution |
Battery swapping can be a cost-effective solution for users, as it
eliminates the need for them to purchase and maintain their own battery. |
Dependence on battery swapping infrastructure |
Battery swapping system requires a well-established infrastructure,
which is not yet widely available. It also means that it’s less flexible in
terms of location and availability. |
|
Reduced downtime for vehicles |
By allowing for quick battery replacement, battery swapping can reduce
downtime for vehicles. |
High investment costs |
The battery is one of the investment components that must be provided
in large quantities and the price is quite expensive |
|
External Analysis |
||||
|
Opportunity |
Threat |
|
||
|
Expansion of electric vehicles market |
As the electric vehicle market continues to grow, there will be more
demand for battery swapping systems to support these vehicles. |
Competition from other charging methods |
Battery swapping system faces competition from other charging methods,
such as fast charging stations and home charging, which could make it less
attractive to users. |
|
|
Greater adoption in fleet vehicles |
Battery swapping systems can be particularly beneficial for fleet
vehicles, such as delivery trucks, buses, and taxis as it can reduce downtime
and increase efficiency. |
Battery technology advancements |
|
|
|
Providing environtmentally friendly transportation
options |
The use of electric vehicles also helps reduce the level of air
pollution due to exhaust gases from motor vehicles |
Low rate of technological conversion in society |
Inadequate electric vehicle infrastructure makes people hesitate to switch
from internal combustion engine (ICE) based motor vehicles to electric
vehicles |
|
(Source: Author)
From the results of the business situation analysis above, the
development of a Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping Station (SPBKLU) by
PLN is still very possible. It's just that PLN must mitigate things that can
hinder it as early as possible.
Risk
Identification
Risk identification is carried out by interviewing relevant stakeholders
based on risk categories in PLN's risk taxonomy. In this study the business
process owner who acts as a stakeholder is Strategic, Finance and Human Capital
Risk Division, Commerce Product Development Division and Electricity
Maintenance Center with the mapping of each risk
category as follows.
%20903-918_files/image008.jpg)
Figure 1 Risk Identification Mapping
(Source: Author)
Table 3 Risk Identification
|
Risk Category |
Risk ID |
Risk
Description |
Risk Cause |
|
Strategic (S) |
S.1 |
Government regulatory changes |
Changes in global issues related to climate change and net zero emission
commitments have also influenced the policies taken by the Indonesian government |
|
Strategic (S) |
S.2 |
Permits for payment systems not issued |
Incomplete supporting documents for licensing to be reported to the
central bank as regulator (Bank Indonesia) |
|
Strategic (S) |
S.3 |
There is no regulation that sets the basic battery swapping tariff |
Ministerial Regulation related to electric vehicles have not regulated the
tariffs for battery swapping process |
|
Strategic (S) |
S.4 |
The product development plan is not mature |
Battery Swapping Station is still in the pre–commercialization stage |
|
Financial (F) |
F.1 |
Changes in interest rates |
Global economic conditions affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
|
Financial (F) |
F.2 |
Insufficient operation incomes |
Battery swapping fees is not enough to cover the cost of electricity
production for charging the battery |
|
Financial (F) |
F.3 |
Low investment rating |
Excessive investment costs and low return on investment make
investments for SPBKLU projects not a top priority |
|
Operational (O) |
O.1 |
Battery swapping process failed |
Batteries not registered |
|
Operational (O) |
O.2 |
Inadequate system interconnection technology |
Synchronization between Battery Swap System (BSS), back end and payment
point is not perfect |
|
Operational (O) |
O.3 |
Battery not compatible with swapping cabinet |
Electric motorcycle manufacturers don't want to change the size of the
battery to fit the existing cabinet because it will increase production costs |
|
Operational (O) |
O.4 |
Electric motor vehicles battery is broken |
There is no battery usage history |
|
Operational (O) |
O.5 |
Force majeure |
Damage from natural disasters and other unforeseen events |
|
Project (P) |
P.1 |
There is no standardization of battery models |
Electric vehicle manufacturers have their own battery designs and have
not yet agreed to make batteries with standardized dimensions |
|
Project (P) |
P.2 |
The Swapping Battery Cabinet Development Project is delays |
The development process that involves the type of battery from several
manufacturers requires a longer synchronization process |
|
Compliance(C) |
C.1 |
Lawsuits from business partner |
Cooperation with several partners can lead to lawsuits if there is an
article in a contract that is detrimental to one of the parties |
|
Compliance (C) |
C.2 |
Delays in the adaptation of the latest government regulations |
The PLN Internal Regulation review process that requires a long Good
Corporate Governance (GCG) process |
(Source: Author)
Risk
Measurement and Prioritization
In determining risk prioritization, the risk rating score is measured and
calculated first. The risk rating score is obtained by multiplying the
probability level by the risk impact level. Risk rating for each of the risks
identified are as follows.
Table 4 Measurement of Risk Level
%20903-918_files/image010.gif)
Source: (Author)
The results of the risk rating score will then be mapped into the risk
matrix. The risk appetite limit is indicated by a dotted line Mapping risk rating score
for all identified risks are shown in table 4 below.
Table 5 Risk Matrix
%20903-918_files/image012.gif)
Source (Author)
After measuring the risk rating, the risks above will then be prioritized.
Risk prioritization aims to develop a treatment or mitigation plan for the
priority risks that can reduce the level of risk to a predetermined risk
appetite. Priority risks are risks with a high–risk rating score and above the
company's risk appetite. PT PLN (Persero)'s risk appetite is at a low and
moderate level, so priority risks are risks that are extreme at high, very high
and extreme levels.
Table 6 Risk Prioritization
%20903-918_files/image014.gif)
Source (Author)
From the results of the calculation of the risk rating in table 4.6
above, there are 4 levels of risk rating. For the Extreme level there is 2 risks,
for the Very High level there is 3 risks, for the High level there are 9 risks,
and for the Moderate level there are 2 risks. According to PT PLN (Persero)'s
Risk Appetite, only 2 risks that are at the Moderate level will be accepted.
Meanwhile, for the other 14 risks, risk treatment will be carried out to reduce
the risk rating to a Moderate level. The risk treatment carried out is by
carrying out a mitigation plan that can reduce the level of possibility or
level of impact of the 14 risks that are at the High, Very High and Extreme
levels. Each mitigation plan for the priority risks above will then be prepared
for an implementation plan.
Conclusion
From the
results of the risk priorities above, 7 (seven) risks with the highest level of
risk were selected for mitigation. Mitigation plans that can be carried out
regarding the construction of a Public Electric Vehicle Battery Swapping
Station (SPBKLU)
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